It may be โthe worst business case in movie historyโ by director James Cameronโs own admission, but Avatar: The Way of Water will still be another major money maker for 20th Century Studios, with current global box office projections indicating the long-awaited sequel is cruising towards a monstrous US$525 million (AU$765 million) opening weekend.
According to Deadline, the sci-fi epic starring Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldana is tracking to launch anywhere between US$150 million and US$175 million (AU$218.8 million and AU$255.3 million) within the US/Canada domestic market alone โ more than double the first filmโs US$77 million (AU$112.3 million) debut โ with a casual US$350 million (AU$510 million) from the rest of the world.
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โThe offshore tickets sales are composed of US$250 million (AU$364.7 million) plus another US$100 million (AU$145.9 million) from China, always the variable market,โ explains Anthony DโAlessandro & Nancy Tartaglione of the prolific entertainment publication.
โAvatar: The Way of Water begins its international rollout Wednesday (today) in such majors as France, Korea, Germany, and Italy, with some markets playing from midnight. China also is getting 3,000 preview showings ahead of its Friday bow.โ
โThrough Friday, the entire overseas landscape will be covered, including 52 material markets (the sequel, for ongoing geopolitical reasons, will not released in Russia).โ
Competition, Comparisons, & Coming For The Crown
At the time of this writing, US/Canada domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water come to an estimated US$38 million, which is double that of Top Gun: Maverick โ the current highest-grossing film of 2022 โ as well as Jurassic World: Dominion; but behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which opened to $181.3 million and $187.4 million, respectively.
Still, considering weโre approaching the holiday season and the โsignificantโ lack of competition on the horizon โ the perks of being in the Disney family/everyone else knowing to steer clear of old Jimmy C โ box office receipts will more than likely take off at an exponential rate as cultural momentum builds and word of mouth spreads.
As for the honour of historyโs highest-grossing film, as Hollywoodโs most dominant power player, James Cameron is essentially fighting himself on this one.
The throne is currently being operated by the first Avatar generated approximately US$2.92 billion (2009 figure not adjusted for inflation) with Avengers: Endgame nipping at its heels, sitting on an equally-impressive US$2.79 billion (2019 figure not adjusted for inflation), followed by yet another Cameron flick, Titanic, at US$2.19 billion (1997 figure not adjusted for inflation).
Like we said: never bet against James Cameron.
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A Multi-Billion-Dollar Sigh Of Relief?
Itโs a good thing the sequel will (ostensibly) draw in audiences by the droves. Because based on what James Cameron mentioned just last month, Avatar: The Way of Water, itโll have to rake in a whole lot of cash just to escape box office flop territory.
โVery fucking expensive,โ was the only answer Cameron was willing to offer when prompted about the true figure of the total production budget by GQ Magazine.
โYou have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. Thatโs your threshold. Thatโs your break-even.โ
โI like difficult. Iโm attracted by difficult. Difficult is a fucking magnet for me. I go straight to difficult.โ
โAnd I think it probably goes back to this idea that there are lots of smart, really gifted, really talented filmmakers out there that just canโt do the difficult stuff. So that gives me a tactical edge to do something nobody else has ever seen, because the really gifted people donโt fucking want to do it.โ
โAny movie you just hope to get seenโฆ Iโve done lots of movies that havenโt even come out, that people donโt notice. So with this one, itโs a very hard thing. Youโre handing it over to an audience hoping they embrace it, hoping they see it as exciting as when you were making it,โ Sam Worthington told BH exclusively.
โIโve never been this excited actually. My excitement is as excited as it can be. Iโm peaking right now,โ said Cliff Curtis, who portrays Metkayina Clan Chief Tonowari, during the same interview.
โItโs been great working with Sam and seeing him evolve this character, you know, from this reluctant hero in the first one to now. Heโs all about his family. Initially, he hasnโt really got much that he holds dear, nothingโs really precious to him, and now heโs a guy whoโll do anything for his family. I think thatโs great storytelling. And I think for masculinity, itโs a good anchor. Itโs a good place for us to start.โ
Worthington added: โ[Director James Cameron] was about right comparing it to The Godfather series, he would say that to us because itโs about family. Thatโs what itโs aboutโฆ The Sullys go on this journey where their lives are threatened by an outside force, and theyโre forced to connect to other clans, to hold on to each other no matter how intense the stakes get.โ
James Cameronโs Avatar: The Way Of Water is now showing in cinemas โ do yourself the favour.
